As usually happens whenever the North does something wonky, there's been a wave of concern from people stateside about the well being of people living in Seoul, namely myself, were war to break out on the Korean peninsula.
In case you've missed it, the North fired live artillery shells onto an island off the east coast of South Korean shores in what may be considered disputed waters. The incident left four dead, including two civilians.
On our side of the DMZ, reaction has been mixed. It's true that the civilian deaths have sparked some contained outrage here in the city, but the overall response has been to criticize President Lee MyeongBak's failure to act more swiftly and forcefully. In my opinion, the Korean people would rip him to shreds no matter what reaction he had; he's not a very well liked president. In any event, the administration sacked the Minister of Defense. There has been little activity since the first bombing save some ramp up of defenses on the island and the typical squabbling over who provoked who. Aside from that, everything has been business as usual, with the local media and civilian population going back about their lives as if nothing has happened. If there's anything the nuclear tests in 2006 taught me, it's to worry when the locals do. If that philosophy holds true, then all's well.
I'd like to recount a story I read in a local newspaper on Saturday. According to the paper, the U.S. General in charge of forces in Korea visited the scene of the bombing to survey the damage. Shortly after his departure, the North began firing artillery again, but this time into their own waters. This behavior says two things to me about the North's mentality. The first is that they know they've rattled some cages and they want to let the South (or perhaps even their own citizens) know that they're the ones in control. The second is that they're too timid to stick their tongue out while the parents are watching. That is to say, when the States are on the scene, they can behave themselves. When we've got our backs turned, the North Koreans start teasing again.
Given that there's an evident fear to provoke the U.S., I highly doubt that we'll see another incident until the media turmoil tires of the uneventful. If this is truly a solidification of strength to pass power to Kim JeongEun, then we can be sure to see at least a few more hawkish moves on the part of the North, but contrary to popular belief there's nothing crazy about Kim JongIl. He's calculating and he knows how to keep his power. If he appears weak to his people, he loses the underpinning of his cult following: the deception that he could topple the U.S. at any time. He must keep poking the tiger without ever waking it up, because then he knows he doesn't stand a chance. So far, he and his father have gone almost 60 years without losing it all. Kim JongIl's more than aware that there won't be anything for his son to take over if he oversteps the boundaries while trying to pass the torch.
My final word would be to not believe the hype about riots in the city, devastation on YeongPyeong island, or the brink of war for the region. The panic stateside wasn't half as bad in March when the North allegedly sank the Cheonan, resulting in 46 casualties. Sometimes the things American media chooses to run with can be as arbitrary as a slow news week.
In case you've missed it, the North fired live artillery shells onto an island off the east coast of South Korean shores in what may be considered disputed waters. The incident left four dead, including two civilians.
On our side of the DMZ, reaction has been mixed. It's true that the civilian deaths have sparked some contained outrage here in the city, but the overall response has been to criticize President Lee MyeongBak's failure to act more swiftly and forcefully. In my opinion, the Korean people would rip him to shreds no matter what reaction he had; he's not a very well liked president. In any event, the administration sacked the Minister of Defense. There has been little activity since the first bombing save some ramp up of defenses on the island and the typical squabbling over who provoked who. Aside from that, everything has been business as usual, with the local media and civilian population going back about their lives as if nothing has happened. If there's anything the nuclear tests in 2006 taught me, it's to worry when the locals do. If that philosophy holds true, then all's well.
I'd like to recount a story I read in a local newspaper on Saturday. According to the paper, the U.S. General in charge of forces in Korea visited the scene of the bombing to survey the damage. Shortly after his departure, the North began firing artillery again, but this time into their own waters. This behavior says two things to me about the North's mentality. The first is that they know they've rattled some cages and they want to let the South (or perhaps even their own citizens) know that they're the ones in control. The second is that they're too timid to stick their tongue out while the parents are watching. That is to say, when the States are on the scene, they can behave themselves. When we've got our backs turned, the North Koreans start teasing again.
Given that there's an evident fear to provoke the U.S., I highly doubt that we'll see another incident until the media turmoil tires of the uneventful. If this is truly a solidification of strength to pass power to Kim JeongEun, then we can be sure to see at least a few more hawkish moves on the part of the North, but contrary to popular belief there's nothing crazy about Kim JongIl. He's calculating and he knows how to keep his power. If he appears weak to his people, he loses the underpinning of his cult following: the deception that he could topple the U.S. at any time. He must keep poking the tiger without ever waking it up, because then he knows he doesn't stand a chance. So far, he and his father have gone almost 60 years without losing it all. Kim JongIl's more than aware that there won't be anything for his son to take over if he oversteps the boundaries while trying to pass the torch.
My final word would be to not believe the hype about riots in the city, devastation on YeongPyeong island, or the brink of war for the region. The panic stateside wasn't half as bad in March when the North allegedly sank the Cheonan, resulting in 46 casualties. Sometimes the things American media chooses to run with can be as arbitrary as a slow news week.
A good motto to live by: when the locals worry, you worry.
ReplyDelete